In the first seven rounds of the AFL we’ve seen big forwards do what big forwards do best: take big grabs, kick bags and boot plenty of snags.
The Coleman Medal race looks set to be the hottest contested one in recent memory.
The leaderboard currently stands at:
- Charlie Curnow – Carlton : 30 goals
- Jeremy Cameron – Geelong : 30 goals
- Tom Hawkins – Geelong : 22 goals
- Charlie Cameron – Brisbane Lions: 22 goals
- Toby Greene – GWS: 20 goals
- Oscar Allen – West Coast: 18 goals
13 further players sit between 14 and 16 goals showing how even this race is shaping up to be outside of Curnow and Cameron.
The betting market shows Cameron a short-priced favourite from Curnow with a big gap to the rest, with oddsmakers seeing four clear chances of winning the Coleman.
MAIN CONTENDERS
JEREMY CAMERON - GEELONG: $1.83 (via betr)
The best player in the AFL by a fair margin is one Jezza Cameron and he looks the likely winner of the Coleman Medal.
Why likely? It’s all due to consistent performances so far this season - no matter the opposition - while also playing for a team that will give him plenty of looks at goal.
He’s kicked 30 goals so far, and were Jezza to keep up his 4.3 average, he’d be on track for 98 goals for the season.
But with games already played against Hawthorn and West Coast, the easiest of his remaining games comes up against North Melbourne in July.
Could Cameron kick 100? A player of his talent, sure.
Will he? Probably not, such are the defensive schemes and flooding tactics of the modern game.
Were anyone to do so this season, it feels like Cameron would be the one: six goals against Carlton and five against the Swans means he can boot a bag against quality opposition.
With 10 games left at GMHBA Stadium and the MCG - where he has 126 goals in 48 games - he’s a great chance to take out the Coleman at the very least.
CHARLIE CURNOW - CARLTON: $2.20 (via Ladbrokes)
Same as Jezza, last year’s Charlie has 30 already, so were that 4.3 a game average to hold, he’s also on track to kick 98.
What is in Curnow’s favour - as opposed to Cameron - is that Carlton still have two games against Gold Coast, a game against Hawthorn and another outing taking on an abysmal West Coast side.
He finished his Coleman-winning season last year averaging 2.9 majors a game and with the chance to pad his totals against the cellar-dwellers, Curnow is a massive hope to win a Coleman once again.
He loves kicking goals no matter the opposition - even if this year has seen a lot of his snags come against North and West Coast - and he’s the focal point of Carlton’s offence.
TOM HAWKINS - GEELONG: $21 (via Ladbrokes)
Hawkins has found form over the past fortnight with 13 goals with five against Grand finalist Sydney Swans and a career best eight against Essendon.
In the last two seasons the 2020 Coleman winner has kicked 54 and 59 goals which are a testament to his ability and longevity: taking out the Covid-affected 2020, Hawkins has kicked 50 or more in the last four seasons.
But with his older body at age 34 (turning 35 in July) and the likelihood of being managed throughout the season to have Hawkins at his best come finals time, it seems unlikely that Hawkins - with 22 goals to his name already - can cut down the 8-goal lead that Cameron and Curnow have on him.
CHARLIE CAMERON - BRISBANE: $21 (via Ladbrokes)
Cameron is the most in-form small forward in the competition, is the key to the Brisbane Lions success and on track for a career-best season.
His three best goal kicking seasons have been 54, 47 and 48. Take out the shortened 2020 season and those totals haven’t won a Coleman in 100 years.
But Cameron has already shown he can boot hefty bags this season, and having upped his average from 2.2 goals a game to 3.1 he will be right in the mix.
With Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and now Jack Gunston in a packed forward line for Brisbane, it will take a bit for Chucky to win a Coleman.
OUTSIDERS
TOBY GREENE - GWS: $34 (via Ladbrokes)
Greene is a genuine excitement machine who is more than capable of winning games off of his own boot.
His biggest haul in a game is seven goals against the Western Bulldogs in 2022, outside of that he’s snagged multiple hauls of five.
Undoubtedly one of the best players in the AFL, does he have the consistency to kick enough goals and win a Coleman? With a career high of 42 in 2021, statistical probability and logic says it’s unlikely.
JOE DANIHER - BRISBANE: $41 (via Ladbrokes)
If - and it’s a big ‘if’ - Joe could put it all together, the big Lion is more than capable of winning a Coleman Medal.
He gets more than enough looks at goal throughout a season thanks to that dominant Brisbane midfield: but can his accuracy get to a point where he could legitimately challenge for the Coleman?
Mind-blowingly Joe has only 292 goals in his career along with 211 behinds, which says anytime (before taking distance or angles into consideration) Joe has a shot on goal he is only a 58% chance of kicking a major.
With a premium on accuracy at the pointy end of the Coleman chase, that’s what separates the contenders from the pretenders.
OSCAR ALLEN - WEST COAST: $51 (via Ladbrokes)
Oscar Allen has started the season brilliantly for West Coast, kicking 18 goals so far this season. He and Tim Kelly are the only positives for the Eagles in 2023, but he’s still unlikely to win the Coleman as the West Coast Eagles simply won’t be competitive enough to give him the necessary chances to kick enough goals.
28 goals is his best return in a season in a career that has been riddled by injuries: but if Allen can continue his current average of 2.57 goals a game up, he’s still on track to kick 55-60 goals in 2023.
BEST OF THE REST
LOGAN MCDONALD - SYDNEY: $251 (via Ladbrokes)
The heir apparent to Buddy Franklin in Sydney has started off 2023 well: his accuracy in front of goals is impressive (14.3 this season) and while he’s an extreme long-shot Coleman winner this year, he has 38 goals to his name in short order and is one to keep an eye on as a generational forward.
McDonald is on track to double his career goal tally (24 at the start of 2022) within the next six weeks, as he averages two a game in 2023.
BAYLEY FRITSCH - MELBOURNE: $51 (via Ladbrokes)
Melbourne forward weapon Frisch has kicked at least one goal in his past 35 games with a total of 91 goals in those 35 outings.
Fritsch is an absolute gun and will always be a top 10 chance as far as a Coleman Medal goes.
His highest career tally is 50 and with the emergence of Jacob Van Rooyen as the Dees full-forward for the next decade, a Coleman looks unlikely as he will struggle to get the opportunities needed to kick the necessary volume.
TAYLOR WALKER - ADELAIDE: $51 (via Ladbrokes)
Big Tex has started the season well with 15 goals at 2.1 a game.
But career season high is 55 in 2015 and with the additions of Izak Rankine and Darcy Fogarty in this Adelaide team, it‘s hard to see him making up the 15 goal differential that Cameron and Curnow have on him after seven games.
BEN KING - GOLD COAST: $67 (via Ladbrokes)
The big Sun has all the makings of a future Coleman Medallist. 16 goals in his return to AFL after an ACL surgery is a great start. In 2021 he kicked 47 goals, highlighting his immense talent and potential.
A future Coleman medallist for sure, but he is already 14 goals behind Cameron and Curnow already and likely won’t get enough looks on goal to make up that difference, mostly due to Gold Coast not being a good football team.
BRODY MIHOCEK- COLLINGWOOD: $151 (via Ladbrokes)
Mihocek seemingly flies under the radar but the Pie forward is a legitimate gun and always bobs up in the important moments for Collingwood.
Interestingly he is the only Collingwood player with more than 10 goals this year, having kicked 14 so far, he is tracking well.
Given he’s yet to kick more than 40 goals in a home and away season, he likely won’t kick enough goals to win a Coleman given he’s not a legitimate spearhead full-forward and Collingwood’s egalitarian approach to the game.
THE PICK
Charlie Curnow is the best value at his current price: Carlton have an easier schedule and it will likely give Curnow more looks on goals.
-CHECK OUT CODE BET’S AFL HUB HERE-
Originally published as After seven rounds, do the odds like Jezza or Charlie in CODE Bet’s Coleman Medal 2023 betting update?
